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Saturday 2nd October 2004
Bonus NCAA on Temple +8 -110
- Bowling Green at Temple
- Game goes at 11:00 AM PST., 2:00 PM EST.
- Best Line Available at BoDog Sportsbook & Casino
This is simply a case of overvalued vs. undervalued. While there is a very strong fundamental case for playing Temple at this number, mostly based on the strength of their running game vs. the smallish Falcons defense, we’re going to skip much of that analysis and simply make a case for good old fashion line value. Namely the fact these two teams reside on opposite ends of the value spectrum.
The Falcons transformed from a 2-9 SU nobody in 2000 to an offensive juggernaut that is currently 29-11 SU dating back to 2001. Mostly the doing of former Head Coach Urban Meyer (now at Utah), Bowling Green caught the oddsmakers and betting public napping by ripping off a sweet 15-6 ATS run beginning in 2000 and lasting all the way until the middle of 2002. As cited on numerous occasions, Meyer and his team were one of our favorite “under the radar” bets for much of this span.
But the problem is Bowling Green became too good and by definition that removes them from the value equation. Meaning, the gaming community adjusted to this program’s newfound success and not surprisingly, the Falcons are no longer the bargain basement deal they used to be. In fact, BG is on a 9-13 ATS descent their past twenty-two games overall.
Meanwhile, Temple is a program that has been horrible most every season in recent memory. They were 3-8 SU in 1997, 2-9 SU in both 1998 and 1999, 4-7 SU in both 2000 and 2001, 4-8 SU in 2002 and a horrific 1-11 SU last year. Thus far in 2004, Temple is 1-3 SU. But as we cite often, bad does not always equal bad bet and sometimes bad can even equal great value.
Consider that despite being 1-11 SU in 2003, the Owls were 7-4 ATS overall, 7-3 ATS as an underdog and a spotless 4-0 ATS vs. non-conference opposition. It is quite apparent that the Owls lack of success has driven the betting public far, far away from them. And even though BG is 2-1 ATS and Temple is 1-2 ATS thus far in 2004, we’ll bet 2 to 1 that the Owls end up with a better pointspread record by seasons end. Reason being is they are lacking any sort of credit by the masses and contrary to what many believe, they are a much improved football team.
Recall that the Owls entered this season with 16 starters back from their 2003 edition including their surprise QB Washington and 9 starters on defense. Washington was one of the top Juco QB recruits in the country last year and somehow Temple landed him ahead of other higher profile programs. This kid is a truly unique talent with his run/pass capabilities, looking like a young Steve McNair only bigger and stronger. That’s right, Washington is a mammoth weighing in at 245 lbs and is said to bench press over 500 lbs.
Replacing the Owls hurt starter midway through last season, Washington accounted for 1,844 total yards in just five games and led the Owls to a perfect 3-0 ATS mark their last three contests of the season. During this span, Washington had 100 yards rushing vs. VA Tech which was almost good enough to pull the upset. Temple ended up losing 24-23 as a monstrous 27.5-point dog in that one, but it was the first time in over 100 years that a Temple QB ran for better than 100 yards!!!
The very next week Washington produced 350 total yards of offense in a cover vs. Pitt, which was followed up by another cover vs. West Virginia where Washington put in 4 TD’s on the ground. That feat just so happened to break the Single Game Big East record for rushing TD’s by a QB. Thus far in 2004, Washington has accounted for a whopping 9 TD’s and leads a Temple running attack that goes for better than 170 yards per game (BG allows better than 200 rushing yards per contest).
And while Temple was blasted in their lone lined home game, it came against Virginia who in our assessment is one of the best teams in the country. Moreover, there were some serious extenuating circumstances. Temple fumbled on their first two possessions and then gave up a 70-yard punt return for a TD to end the first half. It was a game that got out of control early vs. a very strong Cavaliers team, and we do not at all believe it is an accurate portrayal of how improved Temple is this year. The Owls other home game was a 38-7 pasting vs. patsy Florida A&M.
When all is said and done, grabbing 8 points with this undervalued and overlooked “Big East Ugly” in their own backyard is a very nice looking value. Hold your nose and take the Owls today, as there's a high percentage chance Temple will surprise the heck out of everyone and coast to the SU victory here.
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Source: OnlineCasinoNews
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