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Sunday 19th September 2004
Bonus NFL Pick
Bonus NFL on St. Louis +1.5 -110
- St. Louis at Atlanta
- Game goes at 10:00 AM PST., 1:00 PM EST.
- Best Line Available at BoDog Sportsbook & Casino
Probably a first ever for us on these pages, but we’d say St. Louis looks undervalued here. While the Rams struggled in a 17-10 win over Arizona as an 11-point home favorite last week, the score was a bit misleading. Mike Martz’s crew had three turnovers deep in Arizona territory and also settled for field goals at the Arizona 10 yard line and Arizona 4 yard line. St. Louis is a team that turns the ball over quite frequently, so part of this is to be expected, but the field-location of their turnovers was of more significance this past week than usual.
A quick look inside the box score shows the Rams out-gained the Cardinals 448 to 260, held a 27 to 14 first down advantage and a 33:50 to 26:10 time of possession edge. Led by Marshall Faulk and Oregon St. Rookie Jackson, SL racked up 176 yards overland and Bulger completed 23 of 34 for 272 yards with a 1/1 – TD/INT ratio. All said, this final score could have been far worse and St. Louis was never in danger of losing. And while we have repeatedly given the Rams a bad rap when away from the Ed Jones Dome, it has always been in the role of road favorite where they stand at an overvalued 2-9 ATS dating back to 2002. But St. Louis was 2-0 ATS as a road pup last year and we’re quite surprised the oddsmakers have priced them as a dog in this game.
Atlanta opened their season with a 21-19 win vs. a rebuilding 49ers team, but failed to cover as a 3.5-point road favorite. Michael Vick was unimpressive, completing just 13 of 22 for 163 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He also was sacked four times. As a team, the Falcons were outgained 359 to 227, were on the short side of a 21 to 14 first down ratio and held the ball for a full 7 minutes less than the Niners. Hardly impressive.
St. Louis is now 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the past seven series meetings, winning those contests by 28 points, 28 points, 21 points, 16 points (lone non-cover as 17.5 favorite), 29 points, 18 points and 36 points, respectively. Atlanta ranked dead last in total defense in 2003, including 32nd in passing yards allowed, 29th in rushing yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. The Dirty Birds should be a better team this year with Vick back and Mora Jr. on the sidelines, but they have a ways to go yet and this is simply a bad match up for them. St. Louis Rams the Birds here.
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Source:OnlineCasinoNews
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