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Sunday 11th July 2004
'Leiting' Up the Fish
MLB – Bonus MLB Report on NY Mets -104
- Line available at Pinnacle Sports
- Leiter & Willis
- Listed Pitchers
- Game goes at 5:05 PM PST., 8:05 PM EST.
We played these two teams “Over” the total yesterday with Johnson and Williams on the hill and came away with an easy winner as 11 runs were scored. We are coming right back with the “Over” again today for all of the same reasons. We will admit that both Webb and Tomko have pitched better of late, but it has simply not mattered who has pitched when these teams take the field. Consider first that the Diamondbacks’ Webb is now 13-5 (o/u) for the season and that the Giants Tomko is 11-3 (o/u) for the season. That is a combined 24-9 (o/u) pitching trend, which equates to a blistering 73% “Over” rate. In the home and away scenario, Webb and Tomko combined for a 12-4 (o/u) mark, which is a 75% “Over” trend. And we are just getting started.
Consider that Arizona is a staggering 51-32 (o/u) this season. They are also 26-11 (o/u) vs. teams with a winning record and 23-13 (o/u) vs. divisional opponents. Furthermore, the D-Backs are 11-2-1 (o/u) their last fourteen games. Part of the reason Arizona has been an “Over” machine is due to their dreadful bullpen which carries a 5.21 ERA and 1.535 WHIP on the road. We should also note that they have blown nearly 40% of their saves overall and nearly 60% of their saves away from Bank One. And Arizona tends to give up more easy runs than almost anyone in the league due to poor defense and botched in-fielding. They actually carry the 25th worst defense out of 30 teams in the Majors based on fielding percentage.
San Francisco for their part has a surplus of “Over” tendencies as well. Consider that they are 47-21 (o/u) this year. As we noted above, Arizona is 51-32 (o/u). So according to the company abacus, these two teams are a combined 97-53 (o/u) this season, which equates to a sterling 65% “Over” trend through 150 total games this year. Back to the Giants. San Francisco is now 35-18 (o/u) when facing right-handed starting pitchers, is 32-22 (o/u) in night games and 21-13 (o/u) vs. divisional opponents. They are also 27-17 (o/u) at home and 8-1 (o/u) their last nine games.
The Giants underrated offense explains a good deal why they have gone “Over” so often this season. Consider that their .358 OBP is third best in the majors and “numero uno” in the National League overall. They have an even better .367 OBP at home, which is behind only the thin air advantaged Rockies in the National League. And like Arizona, San Fran has a bad bullpen, which will come in with a 4.76 ERA and 1.586 WHIP on the year. And if all that were not enough, the “Over” is 9-2-1 the last eleven series meetings between the Snakes and G-Men. When you consider all of the above, the small impost here is a gift.
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Source:OnlineCasinoNews
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