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Saturday 5th June 2004
Bonus MLB Report on Colorado +109
- Line available at Pinnacle Sports
- Reuter & Jennings
- Listed Pitchers
- Game goes at 5:05 PM PST., 8:05 PM EST.
In year’s past, the Rockies would assuredly be a High Roller pick in this situation. Unless they are at a huge pitching disadvantage, it’s not often Colorado is priced as an underdog in their own backyard. The problem with the Rockies this season is that their Coors Field dominance has not reared its head yet. They are coming off a 13-7 loss to these same Giants last night, dropping them to a surprising 12-14 for $-140 at home. Meanwhile, San Francisco will come in with an even 27-27 record for -$165. Away from Pac Bell Park, they are 12-13 for +$140. Not only do the Giants own the better record, but have also been playing much better of late. With all this in mind, the logical question is why in the heck are we playing the Rockies today?
Well, first of all we should point out that that eleven of the Rockies last fifteen games have been on the road, where they have historically been horrible. Secondly, SF sent their ace Jason Schmidt to the hill yesterday and Schmidt dominates just about any team he faces these days. Third, and most important, Colorado’s Jennings has historically been unbeatable at home. In fact, Jennings is 25-9 his last 34 home starts for a whopping +$1720. That is undoubtedly the most successful record of any pitcher at Coors Field.
The caveat here is that Jennings started the season in horrendous fashion. In his first six starts, he gave up 7, 3, 4, 10, 6 and 6 runs respectively. Our early assessment is that the cruel pitching gods of Coors Field had claimed another victim. But in his next five starts, he gave up 3, 3, 3, 3, and 1 earned runs, respectively. And just as importantly, he has only allowed 1 home run over his last four starts. Not surrendering home runs is a prerequisite for succeeding at Coors. We should also point out that the Rockies are 3-1 for +$270 when Jennings starts against division opponents this season. Suffice to say, his early season performances now appear to be an exception rather than the norm.
Meanwhile, the Giants will send the soft tossing Reuter to the mound. He comes in with a 5.11 ERA and 1.606 WHIP. Rueter is a decent pitcher and may in fact be better than his numbers indicate. But frankly, this is not a good spot for him and we reckon he could be skinned alive today. Reuter is a control pitcher who is lucky to hit 85 MPH on the radar gun. This in turn limits his strikeouts. In fact, he only has 19 K’s in 61 innings pitched this season. This is a major problem when you are pitching in the thin air of Denver, where strikeouts are one of the few weapons a pitcher has to neutralize the Coors Field effect. Without strikeout ability, Reuter is a dead man walking at Mile High.
And this becomes especially true when we take a quick look at the Rockies offensive production at home. As usual, Colorado is the best home hitting team in the Majors. In fact, they are averaging 6.9 runs per game at home where they are batting .304 with a .430 OBP. They are also 7-4 for +$410 against left handed starters this season. Suffice it to say, the Rockies should be licking their chops at the opportunity to tee off on the soft tossing Reuter. On the other side of the equation, SF is averaging just 4.2 runs per game, hitting .235 with a .339 OBP when on the road this season. And while Coors Field has a lot to do with the home/away offensive edge in Colorado’s favor, the Giants offense has been anemic this year in just about every capacity. When it is all said and done, the Rockies are quite a bargain and we expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory.
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Source: OnlineCasinoNews
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