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Sunday 12th September 2004
Bonus NFL - NY Giants +9 -110
- NY Giants at Philadelphia
- Game goes at 1:15 PM PST., 4:15 PM EST.
- Best Line Available at BoDog Sportsbook & Casino
New York came into the 2003 season with very high expectations; and why not? They had all the offensive weapons one could hope for; a great QB, a great running back, a great tight end, several go to receivers and a sound defense to shore it all up. But the Giants looked more like dwarfs last year with a disastrous 4-12 SU and 3-11-2 ATS record overall. In addition, they were 3-5 SU and 2-4-2 ATS when playing away from the Meadowlands. Even more disgraceful is that the G-Men finished out the year on a perfectly horrible 0-8 SU and 0-6-2 ATS run, being outscored 209 to 78 during that span!!!.
The Giants dropped to last place in the NFC East and head coach Jim Fassel starting clearing his desk weeks before the season was over. Consider also that the Giants were second to worst in the NFL’s turnovers department, with 38 total giveaways. That is about 2.4 per contest! The Giants also ranked third to worst in penalties, as well as penalty yards. This is not to mention they were dead last in the NFC in red-zone efficiency.
So out with seven-year Head Coach Jim Fassell and in with Former Jaguars’ Head Coach Tom Coughlin. This was a pretty smart choice in our opinion, as the Giants’ lack of discipline and focus the past several years has been a large part of their shortcomings. Coughlin is a tough-minded, no nonsense type of coach that does not tolerate mental errors. If nothing else, we do not expect the Giants to beat themselves this year as they continually did in 2003.
We need to also remember that injuries killed NY last year. QB Kerry Collins missed time, Pro-Bowl TE Jeremy Shockey missed the last seven games, tackle Luke Petitgout was out most the year, defensive end Kenny Holmes out much of the year, along with a trio of defensive backs in Will Allen, William Peterson and Shaun Williams. Needless to say, New York had Giant problems to contend with in just about every capacity.
As it pertains to this year, former NFL MVP Kurt Warner beat out Ole’ Miss Rookie Eli Manning for the starting QB position and he has more than a fair share of skill players around him; Toomer, Dayne, Barber and Shockey to name a few. The Giants issues mainly arise along the offensive line, which is completely retooled and it remains to be seen how their rebuilt defense will fair.
Meanwhile, the Eagles soared to their 3rd consecutive NFC Championship last season with a 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS record overall. The Green Birds were a mediocre 6-4 SU and overvalued 4-6 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field in 2003. Andy Reid was recently signed to a multi year contract extension, Terrell Owens has been brought in to strengthen the Eagles most glaring team deficiency from last year and the signing of Jevon Kearse will give the Birds a better pass rush, alleviating the need to blitz on every down. Anything less than a Super Bowl appearance for McNabb’s bunch will be a disappointing season, as they finally have all the tools in the shed.
But let’s take a step back from the preseason hype surrounding Philly and think this through like a handicapper instead of an overzealous fan. The first question to ponder is: Who on earth wants to touch a Giants team that was 0-8 SU and 0-6-2 ATS down the stretch last year vs. this Eagles team that has not only gone to three straight NFC Championships, but that has upgraded their level of talent in several major categories? There in lies the value proposition Bolstering this concept is the fact that playoff teams from a season ago are 16-23-3 ATS (41%) vs. non-playoff teams from a year ago in week one games the past five seasons. Breaking this down further; playoff teams hosting an opener fall to a dismal 7-14-1 ATS (33%) vs. non-playoff teams from the prior season.
Moreover, road teams are a solid 42-31-7 (58%) in opening week games the past five years and teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are a nice 9-4-1 ATS in openers when on the road during this same span. Why you ask? Because the oddsmakers over adjust by giving too many points to the poor team to offset the public’s distaste for betting that team and propensity to play the much stronger club overall. But as we cite often, that is precisely why they make pointspreads and in our opinion, this one is about 3-points too high. Oh, and Tom Coughlin was 4-0 ATS his last four openers with the Jaguars. Hold your nose and take the points here, as the G-Men should keep it under the lofty number.
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Source: OnlineCasinoNews
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